# BTC Macro Vision Validation Report

- version: v0.8.10
- generated_at: 2026-07-13T12:10:24.807605+00:00
- total samples: 109
- verdict: 初步有效
- insufficient sample warning: false

## Primary Scenario Accuracy

| Horizon | Completed | Correct | Accuracy | Base Hold Rate |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 4h | 104 | 83 | 0.7981 | 0.8804 |
| 1d | 99 | 77 | 0.7778 | 0.8391 |
| 3d | 87 | 59 | 0.6782 | 0.7368 |
| 7d | 63 | 36 | 0.5714 | 0.6102 |
| 14d | 21 | 16 | 0.7619 | 0.7619 |
| 30d | 0 | 0 | None | None |

## Level Reaction Stats

```json
{
  "S1": {
    "touched_count": 91,
    "bounce_count": 73,
    "broken_count": 18
  },
  "R1": {
    "touched_count": 56,
    "rejection_count": 45,
    "breakout_count": 11
  },
  "INV1": {
    "broken_count": 0,
    "break_follow_through_count": 0
  }
}
```

## Projection Calibration

```json
{
  "projection_calibration_passed": true,
  "timeframes": {
    "4h": {
      "projected_candle_max_range_vs_atr": 1.037,
      "projected_candle_median_range_vs_historical_median": 0.792,
      "projected_candle_similarity_score": 0.792,
      "projected_path_not_overly_aggressive": true,
      "calibration_passed": true
    },
    "1d": {
      "projected_candle_max_range_vs_atr": 0.951,
      "projected_candle_median_range_vs_historical_median": 0.792,
      "projected_candle_similarity_score": 0.792,
      "projected_path_not_overly_aggressive": true,
      "calibration_passed": true
    },
    "1w": {
      "projected_candle_max_range_vs_atr": 1.54,
      "projected_candle_median_range_vs_historical_median": 0.793,
      "projected_candle_similarity_score": 0.793,
      "projected_path_not_overly_aggressive": true,
      "calibration_passed": true
    }
  }
}
```

## Market Structure Validation

```json
{
  "mss_sample_count": 103,
  "structure_state_counts": {
    "4h": {
      "bearish_to_base": 49,
      "bullish_shift_pending": 16,
      "bearish_continuation": 3,
      "bearish_shift_confirmed": 7,
      "base_range": 12,
      "bearish_shift_pending": 16
    },
    "1d": {
      "bearish_shift_confirmed": 9,
      "bullish_shift_pending": 30,
      "bearish_to_base": 64
    }
  },
  "bullish_mss_follow_through": {
    "completed": 16,
    "correct": 15,
    "rate": 0.9375
  },
  "bearish_mss_follow_through": {
    "completed": 23,
    "correct": 11,
    "rate": 0.4783
  },
  "choch_follow_through": {
    "completed": 53,
    "correct": 42,
    "rate": 0.7925
  },
  "bos_follow_through": {
    "completed": 62,
    "correct": 43,
    "rate": 0.6935
  },
  "failed_breakout_rate": 0.3065,
  "failed_breakdown_rate": 0.2075,
  "failed_breakout_count": 19,
  "failed_breakdown_count": 11,
  "diagnostic_only": true
}
```

## Limitations

- 30D 結果尚未形成，不能評估月級別主劇本品質。

本報告只用於驗證 Macro Vision 的大級別判斷品質，不是交易訊號，不會接入 EdgeCore，也不會下單。